Barone v. Silver, the Tally
Before the election, I wrote this, treating Michael Barone’s state-by-state picks as bets against Nate Silver’s system. To recap, Barone picked 15 states as battleground states, calling 10 for Romney and 5 for Obama. He “wagered” $3,634 on the Romney picks and $4,950 on the Obama ones. Each correct pick pays out $1,000 to Barone.
The five states Barone picked for Obama all paid out for him, so he grossed $5,000 on those bets, netting fifty bucks. That’s about a 1% return on investment, which is positive but tiny. If there were a vig, Barone would have lost.
With Florida not yet decided, Barone’s picks for Romney are a trainwreck for his bank account. Only two, Indiana (which he bought for $998, making two bucks) and North Carolina (bought at $796) paid out. That’s $2,000 recouped from his $3,634 investment. If Florida ends up going to Romney, too (and it looks unlikely), Barone will be $634 in the hole. That’s pretty terrible.
Originally published on November 7, 2012