{"id":67,"date":"2012-11-07T15:31:04","date_gmt":"2012-11-07T20:31:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dlewis.net\/blog\/?p=67"},"modified":"2012-11-07T15:31:04","modified_gmt":"2012-11-07T20:31:04","slug":"barone-v-silver-the-tally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dlewis.net\/blog\/2012\/11\/07\/barone-v-silver-the-tally\/","title":{"rendered":"Barone v. Silver, the Tally"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Before the election, I wrote <a href=\"http:\/\/dlewis.net\/blog\/2012\/11\/03\/barone-v-silver\/\">this<\/a>, treating Michael Barone&#8217;s state-by-state picks as bets against Nate Silver&#8217;s system. To recap, Barone picked 15 states as battleground states, calling 10 for Romney and 5 for Obama. He &#8220;wagered&#8221; $3,634 on the Romney picks and $4,950 on the Obama ones. Each correct pick pays out $1,000 to Barone.<\/p>\n<p>The five states Barone picked for Obama all paid out for him, so he grossed $5,000 on those bets, netting fifty bucks. That&#8217;s about a 1% return on investment, which is positive but tiny. If there were a <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Vigorish\">vig<\/a>, Barone would have lost.<\/p>\n<p>With Florida not yet decided, Barone&#8217;s picks for Romney are a trainwreck for his bank account. Only two, Indiana (which he bought for $998, making two bucks) and North Carolina (bought at $796) paid out. That&#8217;s $2,000 recouped from his $3,634 investment. If Florida ends up going to Romney, too (and it looks unlikely), Barone will be $634 in the hole. \u00a0That&#8217;s pretty terrible.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Before the election, I wrote this, treating Michael Barone&#8217;s state-by-state picks as bets against Nate Silver&#8217;s system. To recap, Barone picked 15 states as battleground states, calling 10 for Romney and 5 for Obama. He &#8220;wagered&#8221; $3,634 on the Romney picks and $4,950 on the Obama ones. Each correct pick pays out $1,000 to Barone. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dlewis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dlewis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dlewis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dlewis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dlewis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/dlewis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":69,"href":"https:\/\/dlewis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67\/revisions\/69"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dlewis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dlewis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dlewis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}